2024, IRS Audit Techniques - Expatriation, Social Security Tax Considerations, Statistics, Tax Audits, Tax Compliance

What’s Your Probability of an IRS Tax Audit? Taboo – to say? . . . . shhhhh . . . . “Covered Expatriates”

By · May 12, 2024 · Updated June 3, 2026

Many tax practitioners think they are prohibited from discussing with a taxpayer the probability or likelihood that a tax return, tax position or a form (e.g., IRS Form 8854, Initial and Annual Expatriation Statement) will be audited by the IRS.

Many practitioners think such a statement is somehow taboo – and cannot be answered when a client asks the question: “Will my tax return get audited?”

Someone who has become a “covered expatriate” might want to know – whether the IRS audit of expatriate tax returns is high or low? What if I do not even have a social security number (e.g., as a U.S. citizen born outside the U.S.) from my date of birth, and I have lived outside the U.S. almost all of my life? Will that impact the chances of tax audit? Can answers be provided to these logical questions raised by taxpayers?

First, no one ever knows whether any tax return or position will get audited. The answer necessarily requires the ability to peer into the future.

Patrick W. Martin

Patrick W. Martin

U.S. International Tax Lawyer · Shareholder, Chamberlain Hrdlicka

Patrick W. Martin is a U.S. tax lawyer licensed in California, Texas, and Washington, D.C., with 32+ years advising on the tax consequences of renouncing U.S. citizenship or abandoning lawful permanent residency. He served as lead counsel in Aroeste v. United States, the landmark federal case on green card holders, tax treaties, and the exit tax. Best Lawyers in America® (Tax Law), 2015–2025.

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